Boogie Boarding and explaining the climate wave
September 3rd, 2010Boogie Boarding and explaining the climate wave Greg Gerritt 9/3/10
One of the dilemmas I, and I am sure others, face in the phony climate debate is how come the temperature does not just get hotter every year? Why was 2005 the hottest year and not 2009. I have been working on how to explain it, and I think I have something here that makes sense, and is probably not original, it has to be out in the web and ether somewhere, but I am writing it down and will pass along my hypothesis and how I arrived at it with the hope that it will eventually arrive on the desktop who is actually working on this issue and can explain to me what is really going on.
My hypothesis is pretty simple. The Earth’s weather is strongly influenced by the interaction between a number of cyclic components. One of the best known of these is El Nino, La Nina, but similar phenomena occur around the world. These cycles are linked, but also display some independent traits. They all vary from year to year if not season to season. You never get exactly the same monsoon as the year before. The east flowing current along the equator in the Pacific Ocean varies in temperature and strength over time. Sometimes these semi independent component cycles sort of cancel each other out, sometimes cycle A reinforces cycle B, and sometimes cycle C influences both of them in the same direction. Each year the mix is different.
But I am convinced that sometimes they line up in ways that produce a very hot year, and the analogy that pushes me in that direction is crashing of waves upon the shore. I like to boogie board, but this is a lesson that surfers, sailors, and anyone else catching a wave learns. Never in the ocean will you find identical waves crashing on the shore. Each wave that crashes is of a different height than the one before. There is an ever changing array of heights, crashing on the shore differently, but there are patterns and rhythms. Sometimes they seems to come in series of sevens, with the seventh being the tallest, followed by a series of shorter waves until it builds back up. Between the moon’s pull, the wind, the arrangement of the coast, the movement of the water in and out involves various motions that cancel each other out and reinforce each other differently on each wave and series of waves and when they line up right, that one wave is very tall. The system to create a very short wave could also be looked upon positively, though not by a boogie boarder, but it is the same phenomena, with the cycles lining up in a way that cancels out rather than reinforcing height, with other waves a mix of canceling and reinforcing trends.
The weather seems to do the same thing. One year the wind shear in the western Atlantic chops up the potential hurricanes coming off the African coast, the next year wind shear is down, but fewer storms develop off of West Africa, and the next maybe there are lots of storms, little wind shear, and Cape Hatteras ends up with a new shape. Temperatures, it appears, do the same thing, this year the flow in the Equatorial Pacific keeps it cloudier and cooler, the next year it warms and there are sunny skies in the places it influences, but the Atlantic is cooler because of some local cycle. And then every 5, 7 or whatever number it is years several cycles line up and we get a heat spike, followed by several warm, but cooler than the record years.
The warm but cooler than the record years are significant. The science is very clear, more greenhouse gases like CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere means more of the heat bouncing off the earth bounces back to earth rather than escaping into space. With more CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the air each year, the expected result would be that each trough between record years would be warmer than the last trough, and that appears to be exactly what we are seeing. Record temperatures every X number of years, with X being variable, but the warmest series of temperatures with each passing cycle.
Is this correct? Does it match the data? Is the driver a believable driver? Is this already a factor in the discussion? Should this idea be promulgated. Join the discussion and help me be a better educator/story teller.